According to the scientists, the current activity of the Sun is significantly higher than the official forecasts of “NASA” and “NOAA” for the current solar cycle.
Something strange is happening with the sun. So far, almost every day in 2022, the sun has ejected torches and a coronal mass, some of which were the most powerful eruptions that could happen to our star.
The eruptions of the Sun are not strange in themselves. They appear regularly as they go through periods of high and low activity, in cycles lasting almost 11 years. But the current activity is significantly higher than the official forecasts of “NASA” and “NOAA” for the current solar cycle, and solar activity has consistently exceeded forecasts since September 2020.
“We can not accurately predict solar cycles. We do not fully understand the solar system, which generates magnetic fields that are seen on the surface as sunspots and produce torches. “This is one of the great problems in astrophysics, so it is not surprising that we can not have accurate predictions,” told for ‘Science Alert” solar astrophysicist Michael Whitland of the University of Sydney in Australia.
But if we can not make accurate predictions, problems arise. What if we base our predictions on a wrong equation? Maybe we should change the way we look at our star.
Solar cycles have a huge impact on the solar system, but we understand them relatively poorly. Scientists believe they are probably related to the solar magnetic field. Almost every 11 years the Sun’s magnetic poles rotate, the north becomes south and vice versa. This situation coincides with what is known as the solar maximum, when the Sun emits the most torches and coronal masses and has the most freckles.
After that comes a period of calming down of activities, and then again a period of solar maximum. Now our star is in that phase, the 25th time since the measurements lasted.
Activity cycles are characterized and predicted based on one factor: the number of sunspots. These are temporary areas where magnetic fields are particularly strong, causing eruptions. Freckles are seen as dark spots because the magnetic field inhibits the flow of hot plasma, and the regions later become colder and darker than their surroundings.
Solar physicist Scott McIntosh of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) believes that overlooking solar cycles based on the number of sunspots is not the best model.
“The cycle of sunspots is not the primary thing. In both textbooks and the scientific community, it is presented as a major indicator. But it is secondary. The primary is the Hale cycle, a 22-year magnetic cycle. “And the sunspot cycle is just part of this bigger picture.”
The Hale cycle was discovered in the early 20th century by the American astronomer George Eller Hale. It consists of two cycles of sunspots lasting 11 years – the time it takes for the sexes to be replaced twice and returned to their original position.
This cycle is observed in a number of phenomena: the changing magnetic polarities of the sunspots and the solar magnetic poles, as well as the intensity of the galactic cosmic rays.
Solar activity makes it difficult for cosmic rays to reach the Earth, and the odd and even solar cycles have different waveforms of cosmic radiation. This is attributed to the polarity of the solar magnetic field.
Problem with sunspots
It should be emphasized that we do not really have a clear picture of what is happening inside the Sun. McIntosh believes that the solar magnetic field generates energy inside the star – a rotating, convective and electrically conductive fluid that converts kinetic energy into magnetic energy.
If so, what causes sunspots? Well, according to current models, they are related to the rotation of the Sun. The Sun’s equator rotates faster than the poles. When they encounter the rotation of the Sun, the magnetic lines stretch and entangle, creating temporary, localized areas of strong magnetic fields, or solar. This, according to Macintosh, is based on the passivity of the magnetic field.
“You have a very complex system inside the Sun. Like all physical systems, we work on simplification or approximation to try to understand what is happening. About 60 years ago we made an approximation to magnetic fields. “So when the Sun rotates, that process starts circulating, the warming of the atmosphere starts circulating, and with all that circulation, the magnetic fields stretch with it,” he explained.
But experts still do not know what starts the line of magnetic activity on the Sun – it may be the cause of gravitational waves, but so far we do not have enough information to confirm this. To find out more, we will need more data and analysis, which will take time.